The "World Social Science Advanced Lecture" (Lecture 72), organized by the Fudan Institute for Advanced Study in Social Sciences (Fudan IAS) and Contemporary China Research Center at Fudan University, was held on Dec 12, 2018, at Fudan University. Internationally renowned political scientist Graham Allison, the Founding Dean of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University, gave a lecture titled Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Prof. Sujian Guo, Dean and Distinguished Professor of Fudan IAS, chaired the event. The lecture attracted more than 400 participants from Fudan IAS, School of International Relations & Public Affairs, School of Journalism, etc.
Prof. Allison opened with a quote from Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the 2017 Davos Annual Meeting: “Major powers should respect each other’s core interests and major concerns, keep their differences under control and build a new model of relations featuring non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation. As long as we maintain communication and treat each other with sincerity, the “Thucydides’s Trap” can be avoided. Big countries should treat smaller ones as equals instead of acting as a hegemon imposing their will on others.” Prof. Allison highly appreciated and agreed with President Xi's statement. He believed that, compared with the “new type of great power relations” proposed by President Xi, traditional great power relations are typically characterized by the possibility of a “Thucydides’s Trap”, but if the two great powers in the world today can learn from the lessons of history and adopt new strategies to cope with conflicts and challenges, it is possible to avoid war. Prof. Allison then organized his discussion around the following key questions:
First, what is Thucydides's Trap? This concept, first proposed by Prof. Allison in 2012, is a concept that he extracted from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides' History of the Peloponnesian War, which states that “the inevitable cause of war is the growth of Athenian power and the consequent fear of Sparta”. According to Prof. Allison, the so-called Thucydides's Trap refers to the extremely dangerous structural change that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace an existing ruling power, potentially driving the two countries towards war.
Second, is China rising or has it risen? Prof. Allison pointed out that China is not only a big country that is gradually rising, but has in fact become the largest economy in the world. He spoke highly of China's great achievements of reform and opening up over the past 40 years, especially China's contribution to poverty reduction, which is a development miracle in human history.
Third, how has China's rise affected or impacted on the status of the US as a defender and the international order it upholds? Prof. Allison argued that as China becomes great again, it is indeed replacing the position that the United States has occupied in various fields in the past. He emphasized that recognizing the fact that China has overtaken the US economically is a prerequisite for understanding the occurrence of the aforementioned “affect” or “impact”.
Fourth, if caught in the Thucydides's Trap, how can confrontation between China and the US lead to war? According to Prof. Allison, the hypothesis of a "Thucycdides's Trap" between these two powers similar to what happened on the Korean Peninsula in the 1950s: the confrontation between China and the US will not lead to a war in itself, but the instigation of a third country may trigger a war between the two countries that neither side wants.
Fifth, is war between China and the United States inevitable? Prof. Allison answered very clearly, "No, war is evitable." He emphasized that many people may have misunderstood what he said in his new book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Prof. Allison pointed out that readers should not simply conclude that war was inevitable from the 16 cases of rising powers affecting defending powers over the past 500 years that he analyzed in his book (12 of which led to war and 4 did not), nor did he believe that the book showed fatalistic tendency. He emphasized that history can help us understand what is happening or about to happen in the course of great power rivalry, but it is the choices made by human beings themselves that lead to different possibilities. In the last four cases where there was no war, both sides made enormous and painful adjustments in their actions and attitudes. Prof. Allison reiterated that the future is as usual, and the history should proceed as usual, that all possibilities are possible, and that the only ones who refuse to learn from history are those who repeat it. His aim with this new book is also precisely to inspire readers to learn the lessons of history from these successes and failures.
Sixth, in the "Thucydidean drama", what is the drama being played out between China and the US today? According to Prof. Allison, the traditional strategic logic of China-US relations has collapsed, and both sides are searching for a new grand strategy to meet the challenges of the other. He admits that for most Americans, including himself, the US is number one, but China's rapid development has completely subverted this traditional American self-perception. How China and the US will get along in the future is a great challenge, and he expects the two countries to avoid falling into the "Thucydides's Trap".
In conclusion, Prof. Allison pointed out that at such a historical moment of uncertainty, the "new type of great power relations" advocated by President Xi Jinping is a very important concept and an open proposition. We need to utilize our strategic imagination, go beyond conventional wisdom and practices, and collectively answer the question of what a new type of great powers will look like in the future.