The "World Social Science Advanced Lecture" (Lecture 69), organized by the Fudan Institute for Advanced Study in Social Sciences (Fudan IAS) was held on Oct 18, 2018, at Fudan University. Shaun Gerard Breslin, Fudan Distinguished Scholar, Senior Visiting Scholar in Residence at Fudan IAS, Fellow of the British Academy of Social Sciences, Professor of Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick, renowned expert on China, and Co-Editor-in-Chief of Pacific Review, gave a lecture on The UK, Europe, and China’s Rise: Old Priorities and New Issues. Prof. Sujian Guo, Dean and Distinguished Professor of Fudan IAS chaired the event.
At the beginning of the lecture, Prof. Guo warmly welcomed Prof. Breslin and briefly introduced his research field and academic achievements. Afterwards, Prof. Breslin began his sharing. The main topics included the following: the historical changes in Sino-European relations, the determinants in the changes in European policy towards China, the reassessment of China's rise, and Sino-British relations in the context of Sino-European relations.
Prof. Breslin first combed through the historical development of Sino-European relations. He pointed out that back in the early days of reform and opening up, when war seemed inevitable under the influence of the Cold War. At that time, bilateral relations had been dominant in Sino-European relations. During Hua's visit to the UK, West Germany, France and Italy in 1979, Margaret Thatcher said that the China's trip to the UK would convince them that the UK would play a huge role in China's development plans, and later said that the British side would bring technical cooperation support to China in areas such as coal mining and electricity production.
He then asked the question “What are the determinants in the change of European policy towards China?” But an important question that needs to be clarified in advance is “What is Europe?”. Germany, France and other countries have reached different levels of diplomatic relations with China outside the EU, and Sino-European exchanges have become more and more extensive and in-depth, so the “Europe” in the Sino-European relations is the EU member states, commercial participants such as trading companies, third-party organizations such as NGOs and think-tanks, etc.
In the analysis of the current situation, Prof. Breslin argued that the new circumstances, obstacles, and concerns revolve around several aspects of China's and Europe's economy, history, and diplomacy. Economically, several EU member states have experienced financial crises and are in a deficit position in their external trade and they have repeatedly taken anti-dumping sanctions against China. Diplomatically, China's Belt and Road initiative is seen as entering Europe's backyard, with investment and construction in Africa and Eastern Europe bringing China closer Europe in terms of physical diplomacy. Historically, China had disputes with Britain over colonial issues.
Prof. Breslin then explained the determinants in terms of national security, capabilities, identity preference and future opportunities. In terms of national security, there is no possibility of direct security confrontation between China and Europe geologically, and both are subject to the rules of the international community. In terms of national capabilities, there is an asymmetry between China and Europe over time. The influence that European states can exert on China's rise is becoming weaker and weaker. Brexit, the EU's financial crisis, and the New Silk Road are all weakening the EU and enhancing China's international standing. In terms of European national identity and preference, they believe in “civil rights” and have a faith in Manchester-style British liberalism, which is now in doubt. In terms of future opportunities, China is seen as a huge market and Europe has changed its mindset. Good political and diplomatic relations can pave the way for more opportunities from this market.
Prof. Breslin also pointed out that Europe's view of the historic opportunity of China's rise has changed: from being an exporter of technology, to a producer, to a potential consumer market, to a market for services, to a source of outward investment. Europe is now generally passive in its acceptance of China's influence. But envisioning the future, the real key factor to consider in European perceptions is not so much the current state of China's rise, but rather where China will go from here. Imagine China in 2030, with the Belt and Road, high-speed rail lines and other developments extending China's influence around the world. Even with slower growth, China will still be an important part in the world economy. This is hugely attractive to UK manufacturing, infrastructure, financial services and many other companies. The energy and empowerment China brings to the domestic economy of the UK is even greater relative to the problems of China's rise.
Summarizing the above, he proposed that the new agenda for Sino-European relations is a return to an “ordinary” relationship. This includes the following key points: firstly, economic issues remain dominant, both in terms of investment in and from China; secondly, even if China's economic growth is weak in the future, it is the main driving force behind Europe's economic development; thirdly, Europe's diplomatic policies are likely to be more focused on potential threats, such as the steel industry and dumping, as well as on the issue of oil and energy security in the North Sea, etc.
Finally, Prof. Breslin pointed out that Brexit could have a new impact on these factors, as UK may compete with the EU to become a preferred investment destination for China. As to what form this relationship will take, Prof. Breslin says “we still don't know”.
After the lecture, Prof. Sujian Guo chaired a Q&A session, during which Prof. Breslin and participants discussed further the relationship between the UK, China and Europe, and the factors influencing it. In the end, participants gave a warm applause to Prof. Breslin and many students came up to the stage to sign autographs and take photos with him.
